Serbia's New Leaders Put Domestic Repairs Before Foreign Policy Shifts

The Student List won a historic victory in Sunday's Serbian election, ending fourteen years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party. The opposition group now moves to lead the country during a turbulent transition period that includes presidential elections scheduled for December.

International observers are closely watching Belgrade to see if this political change will trigger an immediate shift in foreign policy. However, regional experts warn that the new government will prioritize internal consolidation before making major external moves.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that rapid changes in relations with neighbors are unlikely. He noted that the new authorities must first address a system that has captured all democratic institutions. This includes fixing problems in the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector.

Popov explained that "tidying up at home" takes priority over "solving problems with the neighbours." He pointed out that Serbia's relations with Croatia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina remain frayed due to previous nationalistic rhetoric. He described the relationship with Croatia as marked by frequent sharp words, citing Vucic's accusation that Zagreb organized a "colour revolution" during recent mass protests.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King's College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the new government. He argued that many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian foreign policy will remain in place. Vuksanovic noted that Moscow viewed Vucic as "the devil they knew" and that Russian influence will weaken slightly as media glorification of Moscow decreases.

Despite these shifts, Vuksanovic said the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance toward Moscow overnight. He asserted that Serbia still needs preferential gas prices and that the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved. Consequently, Serbia will likely maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, though questions remain about future ammunition deliveries to Ukraine.

Serbia's relationship with Israel also faces scrutiny. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said the new government will re-examine newly concluded contracts, particularly regarding ammunition exports to Israel and surveillance equipment imports. He noted that Netanyahu's government has lost another nationalist ally in Europe, but future stances depend on political developments in both Belgrade and Jerusalem.

Jaksic emphasized that Serbia's strategy of "sitting on multiple chairs" will be re-evaluated. He suggested it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the European Union. The new government's task is to repair damaged neighborly ties to support Serbia's hope of joining the EU, a goal the previous government sabotaged.

Analysts agree that the international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments. The focus remains on stabilizing the region through gradual changes in domestic institutions and foreign relations.