Lula Defeats Flavio Bolsonaro, Keeping Brazil's Embassy in Tel Aviv

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has returned to the presidency of Brazil after defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a close national runoff. The left-wing leader of the Workers Party captured 51.79% of valid votes, while Bolsonaro, running for the Liberal Party, received 48.21%. This result halts a planned shift in Brazilian foreign policy that would have deepened ties with Israel.

The campaign contrasted sharply on regional diplomacy. Bolsonaro had pledged a closer partnership with Israel and cultivated a personal relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Lula, conversely, has positioned himself as a critic of the Israeli military campaign in Gaza. Bolsonaro stated that he did not accept the election results, although the specific mechanisms for a formal challenge remain unclear.

Tensions between the two nations escalated in early 2024 when Lula’s administration endorsed South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. In February 2024, Lula compared the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza to the Holocaust, a remark that triggered a diplomatic crisis. The Brazilian Jewish umbrella organization, CONIB, condemned the comparison as a distortion that offended the memory of Holocaust victims. The Holocaust Museum of Buenos Aires also criticized the statement.

The stakes for Brazilian-Jewish relations were explicit during Bolsonaro’s campaign. On June 28, 2026, Bolsonaro met with Jewish leaders in Buenos Aires. He announced that in 2027, Brazil would move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. In the same address, he praised the 120,000 Jews in Brazil, describing them as men and women who rank among the brightest in Brazilian medicine, industry, science, culture, and business.

Following the first round on October 4, Netanyahu congratulated Bolsonaro on social media, expressing hope for restoring friendship between the two nations. Lula’s victory interrupts a broader regional trend. Since 2023, several Latin American leaders, including Argentina’s Javier Milei, Bolivia’s Rodrigo Paz Pereira, Honduras’ Nasry Asfura, Chile’s José Antonio Kast, and Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella, have strengthened diplomatic ties with Israel or restored broken relations.

With Lula’s reelection, the Brazilian embassy will remain in Tel Aviv. The next scheduled diplomatic move, the physical relocation of the mission to Jerusalem, is now paused pending the outcome of the current administration’s term.