Isrealis vote as Yashar leads polls and Netanyahu faces seat loss

Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. Tuesday morning across Israel for a Knesset election that will determine the next government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult race against the opposition bloc, with recent data showing his party trailing in most projections. The vote marks the first election held since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, altering the political priorities for many voters.

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party currently holds the lead in the majority of recent polls. According to a final Channel 12 survey released on Friday, the opposition bloc is projected to win 56 seats. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to secure 50 seats. Neither group appears able to reach the 61-seat majority required to form a government without the support of Arab parties.

Netanyahu’s Likud party is projected to win 19 seats, a drop from the 32 seats it holds in the outgoing Knesset. Yashar is projected to take 22 seats. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party is expected to win 14 seats. The Arab parties are projected to win a combined 16 seats. Most opposition leaders have pledged not to form a government with the Arab parties, citing the events of October 7.

Key issues for voters include the Israel Defense Forces’ manpower crisis after three years of war and legislation regarding the conscription of haredi men. Many voters also support a state commission of inquiry into the government’s actions surrounding the October 7 attack. Traditional issues such as the establishment of a Palestinian state have moved to the background, with most parties agreeing against statehood.

Voter turnout will influence the number of votes needed to enter the Knesset. The electoral threshold is set at 3.25 percent of valid votes. The Taub Center estimates that at a 70 percent turnout rate, similar to the 2022 election, a party needs 165,635 votes to cross the threshold. If turnout increases, the required vote count rises, making it harder for smaller parties to secure representation.

Several small parties are fighting to clear the threshold, including Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel’s the Reservists-Economics party. Whether these groups enter the Knesset could affect the ability of both major blocs to form coalitions. A slight shift in support could determine if these parties remain in the legislature or leave their supporters without representation.

Voting at Israeli diplomatic missions abroad concluded on October 16. Voting at some military bases began last week. Exit polls are expected at 10:00 p.m. Tuesday, providing preliminary projections. Official results will be finalized in the coming days after the vote count is complete.

Police prepared for potential clashes on Election Day. Approximately 20,000 police officers, Border Police officers, and volunteers will carry out actions throughout the country. Forces are deployed at thousands of polling stations to maintain public order. The police stated this effort aims to safeguard the integrity of the elections and ensure the democratic process is conducted properly.